Comments on: What Does It Take To Be a Kutla?

By: Ali W

Ali W — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 15:08:04 +0000

http://en.aswataliraq.info/?p=130442

I think its offical, I think if the results would change to favour SLA, then Iraqia would cry out foul. I think it will complicate matters more and will prolong the whole situation even further

By: Reidar Visser

Reidar Visser — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 11:49:30 +0000

Yeah, there is a brief reference to it in today’s post. Probably just means more delays in certifying the results, and, I assume, that the SLA/INA merger may be put on hold for some longer. At least, I assume that’s what Maliki may want.

By: Ali W

Ali W — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 11:42:13 +0000

http://en.aswataliraq.info/?p=130427

Reidar have you heard of this, this is big news if its true.

By: Reidar Visser

Reidar Visser — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 10:08:27 +0000

BTW, Uthman’s jurisprudence as such is worthless in this case. Kutla/kutal is precisely the terminology that has been employed in parliament for the past four years irrespective of whether an alliance is an electoral or a post-electoral one.

In general, the argument against the SLA/INA combination as a basis for the next government is more moral and practical than technical/judicial. It will bring back Iraq to square one in terms of reinvigorating sectarian alliances, and it is an affront to voters who were not told in clear terms about these potential alliances during the very short campaign. To some extent Iraqiyya has brought it on themselves since this kind of interpretation was at least implicit in all their discussions with INA in the autumn of 2009 and beyond, when even Iraqiyya optimists had no faith in the idea that they would come first. Maliki apparently at first thought this kind of interpretation would be used as a conspiracy against SLA. On the other hand, of course, the contradictive dialogue that Iraqiyya conducted with INA may have protected them from electoral fraud to some extent, since INA is probably the most influential party in IHEC.

By: Reidar Visser

Reidar Visser — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 09:29:37 +0000

Ali, in general I’m reluctant to say much about internal Kurdish politics since I cannot read Kurdish. But I suspect Barzani will have the last word on that, but it is interesting that some Kurds tend to get a little worried when the Shiite alliance gets *too* strong. We saw this during the de-Baathification campaign as well. I think Uthman were among the Kurdish critics at one point.

By: Ali W

Ali W — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 08:59:31 +0000

http://www.aknews.com/en/aknews/4/136412/

Hi Rediar, hope you had a nice weekend, does the link above in regards to Othman’s statement, in regards to what Kutla means, mean that there is a shift in KA thinking?

By: Salah

Salah — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 08:00:07 +0000

Faisal Kadri
agreed, for long time all these parties crying from dictatorship or one party control of Iraq, they came to dance democracy dance, sure they fall in their dance as they have had never been a fans of democracy rather than power hungry to control a wealthy country just as the past dead one.

Joel Wing,

I think Lebanon still in chaos as Hezbollah control southern Lebanon and Lebanon’s army can not interfere or be on the ground in southern Lebanon due to Hezbollah objections, this is what Iranian proxy doing a state inside state status,. However the calms of the only democracy in ME originated by Israelis for western audiences, but turkey also can be considered as democracy for long time isn’t?

By: Kermanshahi

Kermanshahi — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 07:24:58 +0000

Faisal, the KDP is not in decline and they never have been, still one of the biggest parties in parliament, they got slightly more seats this time than last time. Now the exact number of votes they got is almost impossible to determine however 26/42 = 61% of over 1.5 milion = ~1 milion, that’s more votes than last time. The PUK was in decline but now seems to be on the rise again, in 2009 they dropped from half to almost a quarter of the KA and they were outvoted by Gorran everywhere, this time they are ~40% of the KA (which is quite good considering circumstances), they won 17 seats which is more than 2x as much as Gorran (8 seats) and last time Gorran won Silemani with 51%, this time the PUK and Gorran both got 6 seats but in total the KA had 8. Naturally compared to 2005 the KA lost seats, but than there was no opposition then, compared to 2009 the KA has scored a massive victory over their opposition, they went from 59% to 75%, this is because the KDP’s support stayed rock solid, the PUK’s support declined but is growing again.
Also you shouldn’t mistake undemocratic system with loosing support, vote wise Kurds deserved some ~75 seats, the KDP would have had ~32, but seat allocations meant ~50 thousand votes were needed for a seat in Silemani, ~25 thousand for a seat in Maysan. On national average 36 thousand votes are needed for 1 seat, in Kurdistan this was 46 thousand, for an Arab governorate this is like 33 thousand. Therefore Kurds seat wise were in decline (59/275 -> 59/325) but that’s purely because the system was against them this time. If next time the seats are allocated fairly, there will be no such decline. Silemani should have had 23 seats, Arbil 19, Dahuk 12 and Kerkuk 15.

ISCI, Fadhila, the Islamic Party, these parties are really in decline. Everyone knew the Islamic Party was going to loose votes and seats this time to al-Iraqiyya and that this was going to be a lot more drastic than the KA losing seats to Gorran but personally I’d never expected the loss to be this drastic, in 2009 Tawafuq did relatively well, they still won in Diyala and Salah ad-Din and with 32 seats were the biggest Sunni party, seat wise they were 4th, vote wise they were 3rd in the country, but this time they were completely decimated. The NIA did also particulary bad, their parties were the biggest in 2005 and 2009. Ofcourse they were going to loose seats as compared to 2005, since there were now two Shi’a coalitions but the way they lost to State of Law proves these parties are all finished except for the Sadr Movement.

By: Joel Wing

Joel Wing — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 04:05:03 +0000

You’re forgetting Lebanon

By: Faisal Kadri

Faisal Kadri — Sun, 18 Apr 2010 21:59:02 +0000

I have an observation to make. It seems to me that the political dichotomy now is between the rising and falling parties. It does not bode well to see all the parties that are on the decline, even those with solid voter base such as the PUK/KDP and ISCI, so willing and eager to sacrifice democratic principles in order to gain short term continuity in exercising power, it shows how pessimistic are the parties in power. Mahmoud Othman seems to be the exception, Salah.