Comments on: What Maliki Said

By: Kermanshahi

Kermanshahi — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 16:57:53 +0000

Well Reidar it’s always been said that the Supreme Council are skilled negotiators and so far they’ve always managed to make the best from the worst. What we’ve seen in the election aftermath is this skill of ISCI. However they might very well be heading for the end of their days in power.

It is the question weather their problem is al-Maliki, or the will of the Iraqi people. Even they manage to unseat al-Maliki and get all the Shi’a parties, it will only give them another 4 years in charge and if it wasn’t Maliki which weakened them but infact the Iraqi people which reject them, they will loose the next election anyway. In a democratic system there is a clear limit to how long they can stay cling on to power without public support.

And Santana, the Iranians are all but happy with al-Maliki the last 2 years.

By: Reidar Visser

Reidar Visser — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 13:11:47 +0000

Thaqalain, for discussion of security developments, bombs & whodunnit etc. you’d better look elsewhere. It is not the sort of thing that makes sense to comment on from a distance.

By: Faisal Kadri

Faisal Kadri — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 13:07:23 +0000

I think the political process in Iraq is driven by short-term psychology, not foreign influence, not money, just plain insecurity. And if you can identify the person or the party who feels least secure then that’s your momentary leader. I think Allawi’s decision to boycot Maliki is a bad short term reaction and not characteristic of Allawi’s openness to dialog and it will be reversed, and I think the main driver of insecurity is Maliki in his siege mentality and track record of not meeting his word with the Kurds, the Sadrists and others. The main danger is not in letting Maliki be PM per se, it is in letting his government oversee the next elections, that’s why the squabble over who will be the PM for the second period when negotiating alternating premierships. It is high time to consider UN supervision over census and elections.

By: Thaqalain

Thaqalain — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 12:58:56 +0000

Reidar what will be immediate impact of today’s worst bombing, its same like 2006-07 days, what will be shape of the middl east region if Americans will really leave Iraq in status-quo. I am sure cries of dead recruiters will cross 7 skies and 10/14 Commandments will not remain silent.

Who is responsible for the bloodshed, honestly tell us.

By: Reidar Visser

Reidar Visser — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 11:48:28 +0000

Ok this is getting really uninteresting. Any comment relating to claims about the “true sectarian balance” in Iraq is automatically disqualified from now on. You all claim to be secularists: Then you should care about which percentage of Iraqis want a centralised government and which percentage want a confederation Barzani-style, not about numbers of Sunnis and Shiites. There are thousands of other places on the internet where you can carry on that discussion but not here please.

By: Ali W

Ali W — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 11:28:25 +0000

I dont think that Iraqia are smart as Mohammed says, firstly they are backed by Saudis, making them 100 times worse than the Iranian agents and stupider and that they are living in a different planet.

As the majority of Iraqis are shia (Santana would love this), and they have shown support the shia parties, INA and SLA would lose face for backing the biggest enemy to Iraq which is the Wahabi sunni, woman beating Saudis, and the the baathists who destroyed Iraq for the last 35 yrs. They know that in the next election, anyone who has been seen making a deal with Allawi, he and the pary would be decimated in the elections.

Times have changed, sunni Arab minority can never rule Iraq again by itself, the sooner Allawi and INM relaise that, the sooner they would give up the PM position and let things progress.

By: Santana

Santana — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 11:02:53 +0000

Mohammed- It is true that the Saudis don’t like Al-Maliki but neither do any of Iraq’s neighbors (except Iran) . He is kind of in the same boat as Obama as far as popularity…if elections were redone today in the U.S and in Iraq Obama and Maliki would not even get half the votes they got.
Anyway- you mention the possibility of a Military Coup….I think that the way things are going it may be the only and the best option besides a Iraqiya-SLA merger…… but it would only be the best solution if it was done by Iraqi nationals with no ties to Iran and MUST be covertly supported by the USA .
I would be dancing in the street for days !!! LOL

By: Mohammed

Mohammed — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 09:06:02 +0000

Hi Reidar:

Similar to how Iran would never allow INA to support Allawi for PM, I suspect that Saudi Arabia is exerting pressure against Allawi and Iraqiya not to support al-Maliki for PM.

It is quite obvious that Saudi Arabia has a deep seated hatred for al-Maliki (while still hosting al-Hakim and al-Sadr!). I cannot see Allawi going against regional arab governments. In the past few years, Allawi has spent more time out of Iraq than inside.

The only way the SOL + Iraqiya talks would have gone anywhere would be for Iraqiya to concede PM to al-Maliki. If you are SOL, even though you may have some policy similarities with Iraqiya, there is no way they can support Iraqiya to head the security services (allawi has already promised to sack many generals in the military if he were PM). Nobody would trust the future of Iraq’s security to the type of people Allawi, Nujaifi, and al-Hashemi would appoint to head the security. If push came to shove, al-Maliki would just allow somebody else from state of law to be nominated, and I think Iran would force INA to accept this, and that would be the end of it.

Thus, until Iraqiya is willing to make such a concession, I think negotiations are fruitless anyways. In the language of Iraqi politics, breaking off talks is just theatrics again. This is all about who will blink first.

The question is why would Iraqiya behave in this manner? If anything, they are not stupid. They know INA will never support them. For some reason, Iraqiya wants to drag this out. There must be something else that they see or are planning that is not apparent to the rest of us. Perhaps they are waiting for some spectacular attack against the goverment, riots to break out, or some military coup.

By: Reidar Visser

Reidar Visser — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 09:02:35 +0000

Salah, there can be no doubt that the USG wants to have a government in place asap. As explained earlier, I agree as far as the urgency of the matter is concerned but not with the strategy of putting every player (with the possible exception of the Sadrists) inside the big tent. Hence my opposition to the Kurdish 20 points etc. On a lighter note but on the same subject, here is a quote from French WWI premier Clemencau: “Even God was satisfied with Ten Commandments, but Wilson insists on fourteen”….

By: Salah

Salah — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 07:57:46 +0000

is one sorry option that’s for sure ! you dont need to be sorry, it's US favourite option