Iraq and Gulf Analysis

An Iraq Blog by a Victim of the Human Rights Crimes of the Norwegian Government

Iraqiyya, the Kurds & Disputed Territories in Iraq: The Grassroots Reaction

Posted by Reidar Visser on Monday, 21 May 2012 16:47

Sooner or later, it was bound to happen: Grassroots elements in the secular and traditionally Iraqi nationalist Iraqiyya would feel unhappy about the ever more intimate ties between their own leadership and the Kurds.

In an unprecedented expression of dissatisfaction with the course of Iraqiyya leader Ayyad Allawi, no less than 19 parliamentary deputies that are either part of Iraqiyya or have recently defected from it expressed their support for Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki yesterday by signing a declaration of solidarity with his policies towards the Kurds. The declaration criticizes the current political crisis for being fabricated and alleges that accusations about “dictatorship” should more properly be addressed to Kurdish leader Masud Barzani, who has ruled for several decades. The highhandedness of Kurdish security forces (peshmerga) and secret police (asayish) in disputed territories in northern Iraq is highlighted as an area of particular concern.

It is worthwhile taking a look at the identity of the signatories. Almost all of them are Sunnis from various parts of northern Iraq, including Kirkuk, Nineveh and Anbar. In terms of bloc affiliations, most are either from the recent blocs of Iraqiyya defectors (Free Iraqiyya &  Wataniyun) or belonging to small lists. But it is noteworthy that there are also a couple of deputies from the Hiwar bloc of deputy PM Salih al-Mutlak and the Hall bloc of Jamal al-Karbuli. Historically, the Kirkuk issue is something that tends to bring Iraqi Sunni and Shiite Arabs and Turkmens together in opposition against Kurdish plans for annexing the city, as was evidenced by the 22 July trend back in 2008. However, thanks in part to US opposition, Maliki failed to mobilise on Kirkuk during the debate of the election law in autumn 2009 and has remained relatively aloof from the situation there until quite recently.

Importantly, no less than 12 of these 19 Maliki supporters are still technically reckoned as belonging to Iraqiyya. That, in turn, has implications for the arithmetical exercises being carried out these days about a possible no confidence vote in Maliki. What this means in practice is that Iraqiyya can probably muster no more than a maximum 75 votes in parliament from its own ranks  for an anti-Maliki vote – and that is the absolute maximum given the poor track record of many Iraqiyya MPs in terms of parliamentary attendance. In other words, even if the 40 or so Sadrists deputies should after all go all the way and join the Maliki critics in a move to sack him (a big if), there would be trouble garnering the required 163 deputies needed for an absolute majority (the Kurds command somewhere between 43 and 57 votes, depending on the position of independents and minorities).

Meanwhile, from Beirut, following rumours  about a possible rapprochement with Maliki, Mutlak himself cannot quite seem to make up his mind whether he truly does regard the Iraqi prime minister as a “dictator” or not. Maybe he and other Iraqiyya leaders should spend less time making statements from locations far away from Baghdad and instead spend some more time with their constituencies in northern Iraq. If not, they themselves – rather than Maliki – may end up as the main casualty of their current campaign to unseat him.

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44 Responses to “Iraqiyya, the Kurds & Disputed Territories in Iraq: The Grassroots Reaction”

  1. Observer said

    Rv. This is old recycled news. White iraqia and other such people are not part of iraqia and i believe your math is a bit faulty but i need not go into that now.
    Peace

  2. Reidar Visser said

    Yes, I am afraid you need to go into that. The letter was published yesterday and carries the signature of 19 deputies, of whom a majority are still officially reckoned as Iraqiyya deputies. Just to mention a few: Ibrahim al-Muhayri, Samiya Muhammad al-Anbari, Suhad Fadil al-Ubaydi, Abdallah Khalaf Muhammad, Ajil al-Yawer, Umar al-Jibburi, Karima al-Jiwari, Nahida al-Dayini, Nura al-Jibburi, Yasin al-Ubaydi. So where is the problem in the math?

  3. Disappointing that so many Iraqi Arabs, Arab Shia included, refuse to recognize the Kurds’ legitimate claim to Kirkuk.

    However, I would refrain from returning it to Kurdish control until there is a legitimately democratic regime in the KRG, rather than what currently is effectively Barzatalibistan.

  4. Observer said

    Rv. The math always needed sadri sears. The key is not your focus but rather what iran is going to do to bring sader back into the fold. I am sure that maliki will give more promises in the coming days and live to fight another day. Is anybody going to believe his promises? These people that you site need to save face and are not worried about the long term problems of iraq and more focused on their own survival (which is legit from political point of view of their own personal intersts). Anyway, in the end, the whips need to do their job and the test will be when the rubber hits the road. By the way, the timing of this is very interesting. — no?

  5. Reidar Visser said

    Observer, does this mean you are not concerned about the fact that another dozen of Iraqiyya MPs appear to be the brink of defection?

  6. Mustafa said

    It was inevitable. Al-Iraqiya was formed to represent the interests of those sectors and (countries) that were not benefited by post-Saddam balance of powers. It brought together few ‘moderates’ with anti-Kurdish and anti-Shi’a groups.At the end, as unseating Al-Maliki became its main -and only- objective, and that requires an alliance with -even subordination to- Barzani, the anti-Kurdish groups had to split or make their disagreement with Alawi-Nujaifi-Mutlaq more obvious. What seems to me the most interesting part is the position taken by Osama Al-Nujeiifi and his brother. Having identified themselves as defenders of Arabism of Mosul and challengers to the Kurdish expansion, it is interesting to see them both closer to the Kurds than to Al-Maliki. This explains how this list which initially presented itself as secular and cross-sectarian (I did not buy that from the beginning) , has become more sectarian, which also means less pan-Arab and more tolerant with the Kurds.I would not ignore the Turkish influence in the emerging Sunni-Kurdish alliance which attempts to accommodate Sadr’s fears of the growing power of Maliki. Practically what they are doing is while complaining about exclusion and dictatorship, they want to exclude the largest Shi’a block and make arrangements with a weaker Shi’a group, minimizing the country’s complicated problems into personal struggle against Maliki not because he failed to be democratic (for none of them is democratic) but because he has the potential to win more votes in the next election.

  7. Observer said

    Rv. The balance is not hanging on the few that can be bought or sold. The difference is how much pressure or physical intimidation can sadrist take…nough said. The game of maliki and supporters to trhough dust in the air e ery time there is a tough spot is exposed. Reference timing… Do you really believe that the letter signed by these giys is accidental? You are not very well versed in da3wa tactics if you do not suspect that this is one of their playing cards. There is more to come soon. Expect any and all tactics. Anything from the activation of old cases to assassinations. I know that you are shaking your head in disbelief that da3wa or iran is capable of thinking of these tactics, but as i told your friend MO, i am cynical enough to suect that nothing is accidental in iraq.
    Peace

  8. observer said

    Mustafa,
    Settign aside your diatribe about Iraqia’s evil members and outside funding an all that BS, what is striking in all your “analysis” is that not anywhere did you even mention Al Maliki’s actions as a cause of unity of these groups. It is as if it is all anti sheaa conspiracy.

    Really? when did Sadris become sunnis? or did the hakim family renounce its roots. Are you not concerned with Maliki;s slip sliding iraq into single party rule and one man showmanship? Did that even register in your “analysis”.

    peace

  9. Mohammed said

    Placebo:

    You said that I “continue to portray Maliki and Da’wa as rational actors who would ultimately have the best interests of Iraq at heart if it wasn’t for the rest, the sooner we’ll reach the point of no return.”

    Unfortunately, God has not granted me the power to know what is in politicians’ hearts (especially people I have never met and spoken to). I am a “just the facts Ma’am” kind of guy. I challenge you to find one place where I have said that “Maliki and Da’wa have Iraq’s best interest at heart.” I am a reasonable man, but I think it unreasonable that I should have to defend statements that I never uttered in the first place. I have been quite careful to talk about policies and actions, and their soundness, or lack thereof. Perhaps Maliki is also trying to earn goodie points so Santa will visit him this year—I don’t know, and I don’t care. You find that alleged statement of mine, and we can talk—otherwise let’s move on to your other points.

    Placebo, you asked, “For the sake of other readers, lets keep it simple – do you or don’t you accept that Maliki as Prime Minister of Iraq since 2006 holds ultimate responsibility for the murders, disappearances, extra-judicial killings and lack of due process for thousands of Iraq”

    You have lumped many allegations into your claims above, so I will have to deal with them one-by-one.

    Regarding lack of due process for thousands of Iraqis, I have already explained this in the last comments section (http://gulfanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/05/15/the-hashemi-trial-begins-amid-signs-the-iraqi-constitution-is-dying/#comments) see comment 53.

    To summarize, Iraq was in the middle of a destructive civil war along with roving suicide bombers. National security for the country is goal one and trumps everything else, period. Thus, many people get caught in wide-spread security nets intended for the bad guys, with the unfortunate innocent people mistakenly captured and imprisoned as well.

    Regarding your allegations of “murders, disappearances, extra-judicial killings,” I am sure that Maliki’s security forces are partially responsible for some of these. To what extent, I do not know. Furthermore, it is also quite clear that Maliki to this day does not have perfect control over every officer in the security forces. Many militia members from Sadrists and Badr joined the security forces, but remain loyal to their local gang leaders rather than to the state. I also believe that armed gangs (linked to baathists and al-qaeda) still are able to wreak havoc (not to the same extent as before) and have killed many people. Finally, there is Qassem Suleymani and his vaunted Qods forces. I doubt Maliki is in any position to do much about them while he is this weak.

    In my prior post, I also provided a reference for a Barzani media critic who was murdered in the KRG area.The KRG is hardly a bastion of true democracy and human rights. Can we agree that Maliki has no realistic control of security over KRG, or do you also blame him for that?

    Finally, since we are using HRW (human rights watch) as a reference, HRW clearly documented these same abuses occurring when Allawi was PM in 2005 (see my prior posts for a reference), and faulted his administration as well.

    Your final question is regarding finding similar examples where leaders let go of power while being guilty of human rights abuses. Well, Allawi comes to mind. One thing I give Allawi a great deal of credit for is that he held fair elections, and when he lost, he tossed the baton peacefully to Jaafary in the spirit of democracy. And yes, during Allawi’s time, Iraq was also rife with corruption (just ask Mr. Hazem al-Sha3laan and his 3 billion dollars), and the same types of human rights abuses as documented by HRW.

    Another example that comes to mind is the Apartheid regime of South Africa. The 1994 general elections ushered in sweeping changes and an effective end to apartheid.

    Ultimately, free and fair elections are the key (as Faisal has pointed this out on numerous occasions).

    Placebo said “IMHO Maliki and Da’wa will not let go peacefully as Iraqi and extra-Iraqi history suggests. I don’t believe in coups nor violent revolutions. The solution must therefore involve a bottom-up approach. …This pressure needs to be maintained if more important concessions are to be made in future.”
    My response: I agree with you that Da3wa will want to maintain as much control as they can. But by virtue of Da3wa being a sectarian organization, they cannot maintain control over all of Iraq. Let me know when Da3wa is running Mosul, and I will be looking out my window for pigs that fly.

    I am all for organized protests so that people should demand their rights to protect democracy. But as RV’s current post is showing, Iraqiya’s ineptitude may be leading to a loss of grassroots support.

    In the mean time, Maliki’s opponents preferred methods seem to be meeting with dictators in the gulf, and even Iran’s ambassador! And of course Turkey is now the latest hotspot as it tries to weaken Baghdad’s relationship with the KRG even more.

    Regards,
    M

  10. @vvanwilgenburg said

    Interesting was Atheel Nujayfi’s appearance at KRG’s oil party in Erbil. Maybe they made a deal over Exxon’s oil deals in Nineveh, or a share in Turkey’s deals with KRG. Turkey seems to control the old Mosul province more and more.

    Did any members of Iraqi Turkmen Front sign the declaration? Not yet, right?

  11. Reidar Visser said

    That’s right, I think the signatories are mainly Sunni Arabs. Will be interesting to see how Turkmens in Kirkuk perceive the pro-Kurdish turn of their own assumed patrons in Ankara!

  12. Mustafa said

    Observer, the difference between us is that you think democracy will be protected by more MUHSESA between non-democratic groups. Do you think that Barzani or Sadr are more democratic than Maliki? Do you even think about that? The current conflict is between centripetal and centrifugal forces and has nothing to do with nice words about democracy spelled by people like Barzani, Sadr and Alawi. As for your theory about Da’wa tactics, I do not know what does it mean. Is not politics about strategies and tactics? what do you call the continuous and ambiguous meetings between Alawi, Barzani and Nujeifi. Democracy as I understand it is about representing people’s demands. I do not think majority of Iraqis are concerned about what Alawi or Barzani or Malki have as ministerial positions… By the way, have you or Visser had a look at the last results of public opinion polls conducted by NDI? could you explain to me why did Maliki become more popular and his popularity started to threaten even Sadr in his strongholds? what is your take on that or do you think that this poll was part of Da’wa’s tactics?

  13. Observer said

    Mustafa,
    You need to learn how to debate!. Why are you bringing in Allawi and the Kurds into this?

    The question to you was simple. In your post you proclaimed an Anti She3a conspiracy and Sunni Arabs motivating the parties to work against Maliki. That was your post – no? am I pushing words into your mouth?

    I called that brilliant conclusion into question asking you when did Sader and Hakim become sunnis?

    You answer by going on a diatribe that has nothing to do with what is at hand and in answer to your diatribe, i will state to you – “asked and answered”! Please reference old threads if you are interested in answers. I have no time to spar with you nor to take apart your post line by line showing you where you are way off, or misrepresenting facts.

    I took a look at Mo,s loooooong and exhausting post, and I wish I have the time to show the “idealistic” notions typical of academics and armchair quarterbacks sitting in the comfort of 24/7 electricity and air-conditioning. I had to chuckle a couple of times. But I will let Placebo, if he wishes to take on the task. I am no longer interested in this kind of debate.

    I wish there is somebody here that has the true courage of their conviction and proclaim outright that they work with Da3wa so that we can spend some time sparing with real stuff from the ground, alas, this blog is populated by typical diaspora Iraqis who would like to proclaim “independence” but are “sympathetic” to Da3wa and proclaim that they are more protective of democracy in Iraq than us. Funny, if it were not sad.
    Peace and out

  14. Mustafa said

    Observer, I would suggest give you the same advise : learn to debate.If you want to talk about Iraqi politics while keeping the Kurds and Alawi out just because you do not want to hear a critique for their behaviors, then that is not a debate.

  15. Observer said

    Mustafa…hahahahaha
    Avoidence is the name of the strategy you are using…

    Address how sadris and majlis are in on the concpiracy of the sunnis against the she3a in iraq by ganging up with the kurds and iraqia to beat up on poor innocent maliki and da3wa. Then we can debate all the other stuff in your “factual post”…
    Cheers.

  16. Santana said

    Hey Mustafa-

    I searched for this “Maliki popularity poll” and can’t find it on the NDI website….?? even if there was such a thing- it sounds like a bunch of concocted B.S. needed for the elections campaign after the embarrasing Maliki trip to the U.S where he talked the talk but failed to walk the walk…………putting lipstick on a pig again.

    Go read the details of Maliki’s meeting with Iran’s Jalili today.

  17. The NDI Iraq presentation is entitled “A Major Shift in the Political Landscape” that was based on an Iraq-wide poll on 12-20 April 2012. I post below some highlights:

    -A significant positive shift in the country mood. 48% of the country believe Iraq is going in the right direction.

    -Perceptions of an improving economy help positive mood. 52% believe Iraq’s economy is now strong. 34% believe it is weak.

    -PM Al-Maliki job approval is up across regions and voter groups. There has been a significant jump in PM Al-Maliki’s favorable ratings with 45% favorable (up from 31% in October 2011) versus 41% unfavorable (down from 49% in October 2011).

    -PM Al-Maliki has strongest rating of any politician of non-North Iraqis (i.e. ex-KRG).

    -Iraqis looking for a strong leader despite drawbacks. More Iraqis want to continue with PM Al-Malikis direction.

    -Majority (64%) continue to want new parliamentary elections.

    Critical Issues that Can Impact the Trend:

    -Failure to address jobs and basic services concerns

    -Increase in Sunni dissatisfaction

    -Disaffected Shia shifting support

    -Ability for opposition groups to emerge and build a strategic campaign

    -North’s divisions with Baghdad intensify

  18. Observer said

    Three days gone. Four to go.
    The end game is on.

  19. faisalkadri said

    This survey was conducted by Galup and supported by U.S. Maliki sympathizers. The population sample was carefully selected to reflect support for Maliki, that’s why it lead to crazy results like increasing support for Maliki in Sunni areas. Those who are behind this poll don’t understand the consequences: The results will be the template for an Iranian style Maliki run elections, the Gallup connection will provide credibility for Maliki and his Iranian sponsors. Those of us who followed the last Iranian elections may remember a similar foreign run telephone poll with carefully selected sample, it served as a template for the ruling faction.

  20. Observer said

    Faisel,
    If it is a polls game, then we have six years of polling which consistently show allawi ahead of the pack by large margins. That data never affected the position of the US or Iran or, or ,or. Polls are instantaneous pictures and the only thing that you should use them for is to look at trends. The gallop poll may be part of a charm offensive given that the facts have destroyed maliki’s credit with the west and it may be related to the invitation of pletka, pollock, and company to come visit baghdad. I wonder who at DOS came up with that brilliant idea?

    Santana, i hope you are right in regards to iraq becoming an elections issue regardless what obama would do to keep it out of the news….
    Peace

  21. Observer said

    Rv
    Four days gone three to go. What is iran doing? Did they meet with mutleg in lebanon to promise him gold and leadership? How much pressure are they applying on talabani to stop him from calling for a no comfidence vote? Are they planning an assassination or two? Do the meetings in baghdad of the five plus one have any impact ? Will the Kurds stay united? Who of the dwlat al fafon will be first to abandon ship?
    Peace

  22. Reidar Visser said

    Seems Iranians have been talking more than normal to Badr & ISCI lately, maybe to counterbalance the Sadrists. I think we need to get this P5+1 thing done with first before assessing the Iraqi situation!

  23. Observer said

    http://www.almadapaper.com/news.php?action=view&id=66455

    Who is stupid enough to believe in Maliki’s promises?

    Rv procedure wise, there are two ways to call for a no confidence vote. One by the president, and the other is through an istijwab by mps (61 seats). I hypothesized the other day that if talabani is not in his seat(assume health problems, assassination, or out right refusal to stick to the bargin), khuzai would be the only vp in town (now the hashimi case becomes significant as i statd in earlier threads) and khuzai would then be the one choosing the next pm forcing another stalemate.

    I was told that khuzai may not have the cnstitutional mandate to become president?

    Who would be president if khuzai is opposed by the others to become president?
    Peace

  24. Reidar Visser said

    Observer, if Talabani resigns, Khuzaie will take his position. Ostensibly, parliament is to elect a new president within 30 days (art. 75-3).

    It should be added that all talk of Maliki being simply replaced by someone else with the rest of the cabinet remaining in place is futile: In the case of a no confidence vote, every single minister would have to leave their posts and a new govt would have to be approved by parliament (art. 61-8-c/d).

  25. Observer said

    Thanks,
    Yeh. There will be an over all shuffle and everybody will have to take the oath of office…
    Peace

  26. Santana said

    Faisal- you are spot on about the Gallup poll…..

    Observer- the DOS have nothing to do with Pollack, Joost and Danielle’s visit….the Admins doesn’t like any of em cuz their views are always more in line with the hawks and this is not what the Obama admin wants to hear during an election year…the three of them have criticized Maliki and the administration…..and after the “huggy-kissy” session Maliki had last December here in DC then reports by them make the administration look bad…..so the DOS welcomes their visit to Baghdad but I seriously doubt that they had a hand in it…..the DOS is hoping the three muskateers come back and startr writing good things about Maliki….which raises another question mark… IF they do…(which I doubt)…then one can start wondering what the hell happened there…….enough said…

  27. Observer said

    Santana,
    You mean to tell me that maliki’s team came up with the idea of inviting these guys all by themselves? I seriously doubt that! Maybe it is the fellows in the embassy in baghdad. The end result is that they all want less negative coverage of iraq.
    We have two days to go before a serious crisis takes place in iraq. The end result is unpredictable as maliki is in fact capable of even suspending the constitution to hold on to his seat. I hope you are being briefed on the developments.
    Peace

  28. Mohammed said

    Observer

    As an armchair quarterback, it looks to me like Iraqi politics is a game of chess and poker. You seem to be playing poker these days…I say Maliki will call your bluff.

    So you’re about to launch a major constitutional move and you are taking constitutional legal advice from a Norweigan (no offense RV you know I admire you) about your constitution?! And you are asking these questions on a site you assume is monitored by my “friends.”

    Come on man, I know that they aren’t the sharpest knives in the drawer but they aren’t that dumb.

    Regards
    M

  29. faisalkadri said

    Observer,
    I think you are correct about Maliki being capable of suspending the constitution but why bother if he can cook up an Iranian style elections? If the credibility of the survey is not challenged then the possibility remains for him. Last time when the Iranians held their foreign survey its credibility was not damaged enough, this time if the Obama administration did not expose the Iraq survey it will remain the template for Maliki’s elections.

  30. Santana said

    Observer-

    Yes, the visit of the “three muskateers”was instigated by the Daawa representative here in DC, in coordination with Ali Al-Moussawi in Baghdad and was a direct response to several developments…1-the Kurds stepped up their Washington lobbying/PR against Maliki 2- Iraqiya hiring a PR firm and 3- the three muskateers are well listened to in DC therefore Maliki thinks he can fly em over , wine em and dine them and B.S them into thinking he is a decent scumbag …..so they write favorably about him when they get back.

    Mohamed- Are you kidding me? IMO – RV knows the Iraqi constitution better than 99.99999% of Iraqis ! and he doesn’t twist the interpretation like Iraqis do to serve their personal cause.

  31. observer said

    Mo,
    i am not saying anything that they do not know !! if you do not know what is happening in the next few days, then you have not been keeping up with your reading or have not talked to your relatives in a while……

    As for advise – no i am just confirming what I think I know counter to some people who are bsing around here and they have law degrees!!… If it were sensitive, I would have sent RV a private message.
    peace

    Faisel – there is a reason why there was a confrontation on the independent election commission… By the way, if we can not even think about elections as a way to change the direction, what choice do we have? Might as well we pack up and sign in as members of Da3wa like Iraqis did during the Baath regime.

    Santana, thanks for the info. Good luck to Maliki in changing Pletka’s mind :)
    Peace

  32. Santana said

    Observer ! LOL…..I totally agree that it will be very difficult to change Pletka’s mind !! and IF this happens then it can only mean that Daawa contributed/enhanced her networth !! LOL…..

    but I doubt it….all three are pretty solid folks.

  33. Mohammed said

    Observer

    I am up to date on what is happening and nujaifi’s letter giving national alliance 7 days to find a replacement,etc.  The question is if you guys have the numbers. Most “experts” don’t think you do, and RV casts significant doubt on that in the present post as well. The question is what do you do if you don’t have the numbers?

    You know I worship Reidar and I  do not doubt his knowledge of the Iraqi constitution. However, I have always viewed Iraqiya to be far more competent with regards to having access to competent professional people. Regardless of our disagreements, I think somebody of your intellect doesn’t need RV explaining Iraq’s constitution to you. Iraqiya must have had meetings and played out scenarios with competent Iraqi lawyers present who know Iraq’s constitution inside out.

    So these blog posts with countdowns to doomsday along with your questions to RV just seem unusual unless it’s part of a bluff.

    Faisal: I see no reason to doubt the poll results. I had dinner with a couple of Iraqis who just came to the USA. 1 is a secular Sunni from Mahmudiya and the other is a moderate Shiite from kadhimya. For what it’s worth both voted for Iraqiya previously. They have both soured on Iraqiya given their alliance with Barzani. They also mention improved security and economy as reasons Maliki is increasing in popularity. Both do not want Maliki to run again though.  These guys dont have PHDs in rocket science.  Average joes. Yes— an informal poll, but it is consistent with RV’s post and the NDI big picture. Irrespective of poll’s the three numbers I would look at that will be more reliable than anything else: 1) oil production bpd, 2) electricity hours per day, and 3) deaths from violence. If Maliki improves those numbers by 2014, nobody stands a chance.

    Regards
    M

  34. observer said

    Mo,
    on polls, if you want I can drown you with statistics that show you counter information. But let us leave that to the next elections, as it means nothing now. If Maliki survives this coming vote of no confidence, then game is over. You and your Da3wa friends can celebrate total control over Iraq and prepare yourself for the war with the Kurds, and the west cleaving out.

    I know I know, you are no friend of Da3wa, bla bla bla, but you certainly are no friend of mine my friend. Your only hope is to break iraqia apart, just like your friends in Da3wa.
    Peace

  35. Santana said

    Mohamed-

    You are truly insulting the Iraqi people with the three conditions for re-electing that scumbag ……”Oil production, Electricity and deaths from violence”….all three should be part of the PM’s Government’s responsibility and duty without even mentioning it and making it sound like he is doing a big favor to Iraqis..and that he expect to get re-elected cuz of it …………and the other insult is you saying- if he does this, then no one stands a chance”…..yeah right ! according to you then- there are 30 million retards and idiots in Iraq but only your darling Maliki the scumbag, sectarian dictator, Iranian rear-end kisser is Iraq’s ONLY hope and no one stands a chance……….give it up bud- you are starting to sound like Daawa thru and thru….

  36. Mohammed said

    Santana

    You surprise me with your idealistic statements. Are the Iraqis smarter than Americans? Just look at Obama, most experts say that if the unemployment number goes up, he will have a much harder time getting re-elected even though in truth Obama has little control over the business cycle. Do you really think mitt Romney would be happy to see the economy add 1 million jobs by November?

    Iraqis are human beings. They want a job, security, and lights working in their homes, and air conditioning in the deadly heat. That trumps everything else and you know it.

    Da3wa stinks with corruption and cronyism but the average Iraqi will overlook that. Lack of power sharing and abundance of corruption will threaten long-term sustainability of improvements, but not before the next election. Just ask your buddy king abdullah of ksa—he handed out billions of dollars in reaction to the Arab spring  instead of adopting reforms and it has worked for the short-term.

    The reason I say others won’t stand a chance is because Maliki may even  eat into the sadrist ISCI Shia base even with fair elections. 

    Yes, any good govt should be providing these basic services, but the lraqi people have been deprived of them for so long that they are like the traveler in the desert who sees a puddle of water and thinks it an ocean.

    Regards,
    M

  37. observer said

    Santana,
    No need to be emotional about it :) Just chillax and have a margarita or a corono…

    On oil – if you actually follow the exports numbers, there is little improvement but if you listen to Sheristani, we are well on our way to replace SA as the world source for hydrocarbons.

    On services, oh boy oh boy. Electricity services today in Kerbala were 17 hours OFF and the summer has not started yet. Maybe they will get all those Megawts installed in the next 2 months and improve electricity in Ramadhan – who knows, they are capable of miracles.

    On security – oh yeh, they are about to launch another Aawlat Fursan with 400 swat moving to surround Muqtada’s compound. Did you hear about the explosion inside the Green Zone today? It must be the guards of hashimi doing it from their secrete jail cells.

    I know, i know, we are just sour grapes not recognizing the tremendous improvements that the ring wearing, god fearing Da3wa “technocrats” are making in Iraq, and always looking for extra constitutional methods to obtain power and hinder the tremendous progress being accomplished by the turban heads in control of Baghdad (how do you rolling eyes in txt language)?
    peace

  38. Mohammed said

    Observer

    You said: ” but you certainly are no friend of mine my friend. ”

    That was a good one my friend. Believe it or not, but I wish nothing but good fortune for you.  ;-)

    You said: “Your only hope is to break iraqia apart, just like your friends in Da3wa.”

    Only partially true. I would indeed like to see Iraqiya break up. However, I would also like to see Da3wa break up too. I simply hate ALL political parties altogether. 

    Regards,
    M

  39. Santana said

    Guys-

    I just got a readout from Baghdad- the political situation is very tense- especially between the Kurds and Maliki- forces being mobilized in various areas….situation tense in Kirkuk, Shehrestani and Maliki want to impose an oil embargo and stop payments to KRG, Sadr’s home is surrounded by maliki’s forces (this one has got to be a theatrical -IMO)>>>>>Lots going on !

  40. faisalkadri said

    M,
    Take it from me, an Iraqi who was born and raised in Baghdad, Maliki’s intention is to stay in power at any cost. Your friends wouldn’t vote for Maliki, does that express satisfaction of the kind that shows in the survey? No. Obviously Maliki did not win them over, it is your interpretation which is at fault.
    Also, you are interpreting the Iraqi sentiment of preferring a modest improvement in security and services as decisive in vote doesn’t fit the recent history of Iraq; nearly all internal changes of power came after improvements, maybe that’s why Iraq has such bad luck with its rulers.

  41. observer said

    MO,
    Hey I wish you the best as well… whats this got to do with the price of rice in china?

    And to use the words of the immortal ronal reagan, “Here you go again”. You want all parties to break apart and that is your magical solution. Ah, how sweat it is to be sitting in your ivory towers.

    By the way on polls, we found some good stuff in the polls.. but since it is all instantaneous pictures, i will not spoil the good vibes you have from your informal poll.
    Peace

  42. observer said

    Faisel, are you related to Sha3lan Qadri and the Kadri that was chief of protocol int he royal court?

    On Mo, just leave him have good vibes from the poll. It is the first one that shows his hero ahead in 7 years (regardless of the faults in the sampling, and the obviously set up questions). Trust me there is good stuff in the polls, if you read them properly.
    Peace

  43. observer said

    Santana,
    It is very tense indeed. Maliki has lost his mind. I am so sorry I can’t share the stuff.
    Peace (and I mean it!)

  44. faisalkadri said

    Observer,
    The fault in sampling if not widely exposed will leave the results on the same pedestal as other more credible polls. I believe I can’t over estimate the importance of attacking this poll, even with its “good stuff”.
    And yes, I am Tahsin Kadry’s grand son, the name you cannot remember!

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