Iraq and Gulf Analysis

Archive for December 4th, 2009

The Iraqi Islamic Party Publishes the Revised Seat Distribution

Posted by Reidar Visser on Friday, 4 December 2009 12:20

[Update 5 December 16:30 CET: The Iraqi parliament has adjourned after failing to reach a quorum. It will meet again tomorrow, which may be the last chance for averting a second veto of the election law]

Today, the Iraqi Islamic Party has published the revised seat distribution according to the second amendment to the election law, given as “seats 2010 (2)” below. There is reason to believe these figures are correctly based on 2005 statistics of the total population (as per the constitutional requirement) instead of registered voters, since the disputed Nineveh/KRG discrepancy is less now: In 2005 the KRG governorates had 15.2% of the governorate seats compared to 8.3% for Nineveh; in this apportionment the three Kurdish governorates have been reduced to 13.7% whereas Nineveh has been increased to 9.7%.

In other words, the negative impact of the second amendment on the Sunni-majority areas is less than some feared in the immediate wake of its passage in parliament. Nevertheless, there is a desire among local leaders both in the north and the south (which also stand to lose to Baghdad under the new arrangement) to hold on to the quotas acquired in the first apportionment based on up-to-date statistics, and there is currently talk about expanding the total seats to 325 to allow for one extra seat for Sulaymaniyya and Dahuk, and to otherwise revert to the quotas based on the 2009 statistics.

At any rate, the release of these figures is helpful to the debate in terms of identifying and assessing the remaining points of controversy. Two problems with the IIP press release: Anbar is not mentioned. Presumably it keeps its 14 seats. Second, that means the total of seats is 307, as per the first apportionment. Except that the second amendment has stipulated 5% compensatory seats plus 8 minority seats, which would seem to mean a new total of 331 seats unless the minority seats are taken from the compensatory quota, as under the first version of the amended law [or the minority seats can be taken from the governorate seats, as explained in comment no. 3 below].

Governorate Seats

2005

Seats

2005

revised

Seats

2010

(1)

Seats

2010 (2004 estimate, second version of law)

Seats 2010 (2) Change between 2010 (1) and 2010 (2)
Basra 18 15 24 20 25 +1
Maysan 7 6 10 8 9 -1
Dhi Qar 12 12 18 16 17 -1
Muthanna 5 5 7 6 7
Qadisiyya 8 8 11 10 10 -1
Babel 11 12 16 17 16
Najaf 8 8 12 11 11 -1
Karbala 6 7 10 8 9 -1
Wasit 8 8 11 11 10 -1
Baghdad 59 56 68 72 72 +4
Anbar 9 11 14 15 14?
Salahaddin 8 10 12 13 11 -1
Diyala 10 12 13 16 14 +1
Nineveh 19 22 31 28 29 -2
Kirkuk 9 7 12 9 12
Sulaymaniyya 15 15 15 19 17 +2
Arbil 13 12 14 15 15 +1
Dahuk 7 4 9 5 9
Subtotals 230 230 307 299 307?
Compensation and minority seats 45 45 16 24 16
Total 275 275 323 323 323?

Posted in Iraq's 2010 parliamentary election, Iraqi constitutional issues | 3 Comments »