Iraq and Gulf Analysis

IHEC Publishes Rates of Participation in the Parliamentary Elections

Posted by Reidar Visser on Monday, 8 March 2010 17:42

[Reporting on the results of the 7 March parliamentary elections will start as soon as IHEC or the leading NGOs start releasing data. Other estimates, leaks and even “exit polls” are of limited analytical value]

The figures of participation in the parliamentary elections just released by IHEC seem to suggest continued high participation in Kurdistan, but growing voter apathy and disillusionment elsewehere in Iraq, particularly south of Baghdad where the rates have fallen quite dramatically since December 2005.  At the same time, it should be noted that these  figures are not entirely unlike those of the local elections in January 2009 which enabled resounding wins for Nuri al-Maliki in Baghdad and Basra. A key question will be to what extent Maliki has managed to recoup votes south of Baghdad to make up for the loss of influence that was caused when the Sadrists and the Jaafari wing of the Daawa joined ISCI in the Iraqi National Alliance.

December 2005 January 2009 March 2010
Basra 74 48 57
Dhi Qar 72 50 60
Maysan 73 46 50
Muthanna 66 61 61
Qadisiyya 65 58 63
Babel 80 56 62
Najaf 73 55 61
Karbala 70 60 62
Wasit 68 54 60
Baghdad 70 ? 53
Anbar (IMIE: 86.4??)* 40 61
Diyala 75 57 62
Salahhadin (IMIE: 98.4??)* 65 73
Nineveh 70 60 66
Kirkuk 86 73
Sulimaniyya 84 73
Arbil 95 76
Dahuk 92 80

*The IMIE figures for Anbar and Salahaddin in 2005 seem somewhat high and cannot be confirmed at the time of writing. Numbers for exiled voting have also come through: The overall figure remains steady at around 270,000 but with considerable internal shifts, with the Iranian share reduced from some 56,000 in January 2005 to around 23,000 this time, and the Syrian share up from 15,000 to 42,000. Jordan remains stable at around 24,000; the UK figures have gone down compared to the US.

Meanwhile, claims and counter-claims continue to abound as to who won most votes. No attempt will be made to pursue the validity of these claims pending the release of some kind of official data (partial results possibly later this week); however it is interesting that State of Law and Iraqiyya are making the loudest claims about victories, whereas the Iraqi National Alliance (which together with Tawafuq and the Kurds are quite influential with IHEC) have been slightly more in the background. The key question going forward will be where those votes were won, i.e. whether Iraqiyya has been “Sunnified” or has been able to make inroads south of Baghdad, and vice-versa with respect to State of Law. It is this key question, rather than the number of bombs that exploded on election day, that will indicate whether Iraq has made progress from the sectarian climate of 2005 or whether the same old logic is essentially being reproduced albeit with a slightly more national-sounding rhetoric.

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13 Responses to “IHEC Publishes Rates of Participation in the Parliamentary Elections”

  1. amagi said

    These strike me as solid, believable figures. Is there any way we can get them in regards to total number of voters?

  2. Heather Price said

    Where did you get this information? Is it listed in table format on the IHEC website?

  3. Reidar Visser said

    Amagi, I don’t have a link for that handy and haven’t got time to dig one up right now, but this should be very easily available on the net. 2005 figures start at a low of 315,000 voters in Muthanna and Dahuk at 458,000 followed by most others in the range 500,000-700,000 but with Arbil and Dhi Qar above 800,000, Sulimaniyya at 960,000 and then Basra 1,1 mill; Mosul 1,3 mill and Baghdad 3,8 mill.

    Heather, this is from a contact in Baghdad who got it from the IHEC. They are sometimes a bit late in getting their releases up on the website, but it is beginning to come through now on the Iraqi newswires.

  4. Zahra said

    As I mentioned in my comment to the previous post – Iraqiyya announced wins of up to 80% in Anbar on Sharqiya (the presenter even called the leading Iraqiyya candidate in Anbar and congratulated him) JUST 15 MINS or so after teh ballot boxes were closed and before they were even counted. I personally thought it was completely shameless.

    I think everyone else is trying to jump on Iraqiyya’s self-congratulating bandwagon so that Iraqiyya isn’t the only list claiming victory, hence not the only list able to claim fraud if it doesn’t win. I’m surprised you think the INA have been quite, Al-Furat channel has been announcing major victories in various southern provinces since last night.

    In terms of voter turn-out, always sad to see numbers of voters falling, but I think the turnout in the predominantly Sunni areas is very encouraging, and hopefully no matter what shape the government takes, they will feel more included in the process.

  5. Sadiq said

    Hello,
    I am delighted that the exclusion of Baathists and Saddamists had little or no effect on the overall turn out. Many thought that the elimination of these Natzis would wreak havoc but thank heavens the participation has refuted all these claims. I am pleased that the A&J Board stuck to their guns and refused to be intimidated, never flinched. Complete errdication of all high ranking Baathists is strongly recommended. Thanks

  6. Reidar Visser said

    As in “eradicate”???
    And which party would you entrust with that kind of assignment?

    There may be many reasons but turnout is radically lower than in 2005.

  7. Firas Mekkiya said

    you can add to this useful shedule the results of the July 2009 elections of the National Council of Kurdistan which was: Duhok 84.5% – Erbil 79% – Sulimaniya 74.5%. The results are published officialay at the IHEC website in the news summary

  8. Salah said

    إلا أن شبكة «عين العراق» لمراقبة الانتخابات أعلنت نتائج عملية الاقتراع، بحسب استطلاع أجرته في كل المحافظات العراقية، ومن خلال مراقبيها الذين أكدت أنهم كانوا في مراكز الاقتراع ورافقوا عملية العد والفرز الذي أجري في يوم الاقتراع الأحد الماضي.

    واستعرض المدير الإداري لشبكة «عين العراق» مهند الكناني خلال مؤتمر صحافي عقده أمس نتائج الاستطلاع الأولي الذي أجراه مراقبو الشبكة المنتشرون في 15 محافظة والبالغ عددهم 25565 مراقباً ونسب الأصوات التي حصل عليها كل كيان سياسي ووفقاً لعينات أُخذت من مناطق في تلك المحافظات.

    وقال إن «الاستطلاع اعتمد على العامل الزمني وعلى تقسيم المحافظة الى مناطق شعبية ومترفة ومختلطة وأخذ عينات من هذه المناطق». وأضاف أن هذا الاستطلاع أظهر أن «قائمة ائتلاف دولة القانون حصلت في محافظة بغداد على 35 في المئة، فيما حازت القائمة العراقية على 21 في المئة والائتلاف الوطني العراقي على 17 في المئة، والتوافق العراقي على تسعة في المئة. وكان نصيب ائتلاف وحدة العراق ستة في المئة وقائمة مثال الألوسي ثلاثة في المئة، ومثلها قائمة اتحاد الشعب. وحصلت قائمة أحرار على اثنين في المئة».

    وأشار الكناني إلى أن «الاستطلاعات في كركوك أشارت إلى حصول القائمة العراقية على 37 في المئة، يليها التحالف الكردستاني بـ34 في المئة، فيما حصل ائتلاف دولة القانون على خمسة في المئة والكتلة العربية أربعة في المئة وقائمة تغيير ثلاثة في المئة وائتلاف عشتار الديموقراطي وقائمة قلعة كركوك اثنين في المئة لكل منهما».

    وأوضح أن «القائمة العراقية حصلت في محافظة نينوى على 51 في المئة، فيما حصل ائتلاف وحدة العراق على 30 في المئة وقائمة التوافق العراقي ستة في المئة ومثلها التحالف الكردستاني. وكانت نسبة كل من قائمة تغيير وائتلاف دولة القانون ثلاثة في المئة».

    وأشار الى أن «القائمة العراقية حصلت في محافظة صلاح الدين على 65 في المئة، تلاها ائتلاف دولة القانون بـ14 في المئة فيما حصل ائتلاف وحدة العراق على عشرة في المئة وقائمة تغيير على أربعة في المئة. وحصل كل من الائتلاف الوطني والتوافق العراقي على نسبة ثلاثة في المئة».
    http://international.daralhayat.com/internationalarticle/117527

    The coming days and months is vital for all politicians who are in power for the next Iraqi government. their success will be measured by the phase only if corruption at government level is controlled this the big issue here this will tell the new government will be good or bad.

    How much trust any one have of these same politicians can achieve of attacking the high level of corruption , this the the main qustions and coming term will answer us.

    Also building and restoring the public services for the Iraqis is major obstacle of getting the trust coming term..

  9. Reidar Visser said

    Salah, the numbers from the Ayn organisation are an attempt at an exit poll. Let’s wait until some partial results, promised within the next 24 hours, are out…

  10. CTuttle said

    Aloha, Reidar…! Layla Anwar recently reported this…

    IRAN HAS ASKED INA (IRAQ NATIONAL ALLIANCE) TO FORM ALLIANCE WITH MALIKI STATE OF LAW COALITION. IRANIAN AGENDA TO CHOOSE JAAFAR BAQER EL SADR AS P.M AND MALIKI WILL PLAY SECONDARY ROLE– MORE TO COME…

    MALIKI HAS INFORMALLY ASKED KURDS TO FORM ALLIANCE WITH ABOVE BLOC AS PER IRANIAN AGENDA.

    Any comment…?

  11. Zahra said

    Dear Reider,

    what do you make of the statements made from several Iraqiyya candidates, including it seems Tariq Al-Hashimi – that Iraq’s next president should be arab because Iraq is an arab country??

    I always suspected the lofty rhetoric about being the only group that rejects ethno-sectarian criteria and prefers to give the right job to the right man was merely that – empty rhetoric. But i honestly didn’t think the different face to the list would come out that quickly – how can a statement like that be explained in anything other than enthno-sectarian division?

  12. Reidar Visser said

    Sorry for the late replies, caused by long flights. Zahra, I was disappointed by Hashemi, I thought when you have a coalition called Iraqiyya it would support a presidential candidate based solely on merit and not on ethnic background as long as s/he is an Iraqi.

    CTuttle, I am sure Iran would prefer to see a copy of the old UIA. Though I have the feeling Maliki will try to resist as long as possible.

  13. Salah said

    دولة القانون: محاولة إستبعاد الكرد عن الرئاسة “أفكار عنصرية” لم يعد لها مكان في العراق
    http://ar.aswataliraq.info/?p=209082

    الحسيني: عدد شكاوى التصويت العام بلغت 600 والخاص 300 شكوى
    http://ar.aswataliraq.info/?p=209090

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