Iraq and Gulf Analysis

Archive for March 16th, 2010

Predictions Based on Partial Results: Allawi Emerges as a Possible Front-Runner

Posted by Reidar Visser on Tuesday, 16 March 2010 19:01

This is a back-of-an-envelope calculation and it likely contains several errors. I am especially troubled that I keep getting different electoral dividers from everyone I’m comparing notes with! Nonetheless, the partial results are now getting quite substantial in scope, and for what it may be worth, here follows an attempt at simulating the final outcome if the trends observed so far remain stable. Noteworthy tendencies include the strong performance of Allawi everywhere north of Baghdad: This adds up and puts him in front, since the southern governorates remain subdivided. And with the consistently strong showing by the Sadrists and their marginalisation of ISCI within the INA (see today’s earlier post below), is it not time that Allawi focuses his talks on them rather than on Hakim? It is also interesting to see how small parties who miss the threshold of the electoral divider  lose out completely because of the counting rules (in small constiuencies like Muthanna and Maysan, 10% of the vote may be insufficient to win a seat), and how the big parties are systematically favoured in the count of the last remaining seats. Obviously, for the same reasons, small changes can have a quite dramatic impact on the final results, so there is still much to play for here.

Percentage counted INA SLA INM Unity of Iraq Tawafuq Kurdistan Alliance Other or too close to call
Basra 84 7 14 2 1
Maysan 60 6 4
Dhi Qar 73 9 8 1
Muthanna 75 3 4
Qadisiyya 60 5 5 1
Babel 61 6 7 2 1
Najaf 63 5 7
Karbala 61 3 6 1
Wasit 88 4 5 1 1
Baghdad 60 16 27 24 1
Anbar 78 12 1 1
Salahaddin 63 10 1 1
Diyala 62 2 1 9 1
Nineveh 63 1 21 1 1 6 1
Kirkuk 69 6 6
Arbil 64 10 2+2
Dahuk 61 9 1
Sulimaniya 75 7 6+2+1+1
Total 67 88 90 3 4 39 19

Excluding 8 minority seats and 7 compensation seats

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Posted in Iraq's 2010 parliamentary election | 36 Comments »

Baghdad Projections Based on a 60 Percent Count

Posted by Reidar Visser on Tuesday, 16 March 2010 14:35

The latest IHEC numbers are beginning to trickle in. Baghdad at 60% is significant enough to report separately, with the following rough projection for the 68 non-minority seats:

State of Law: 27 seats

Iraqiyya: 24 seats

Iraqi National Alliance: 16 seats

Tawafuq: 1 seat

It is noteworthy that Iraqiyya is doing particularly well compared with the previous figures, and now stands at 32% of the total vote, closing the gap to Maliki somewhat. The case of Baghdad also exemplifies how the particular proportional-representation system chosen by Iraq is not especially proportional and works to the disadvantage of smaller parties: Unity of Iraq, Ahrar, Ittihad al-Shaab and the Kurds should all have had one seat each if the system were perfectly proportional, but since they did not meet the threshold for the first allocation of seats in this example (around 35,000 votes), “their” seats are given to the “winning” lists instead.

At the individual level, the Sadrists continue to do particularly well, with the following approximate list for the top 16 INA candidates that are likely to win seats in parliament, adjusted for voter preferences:

  1. Jaafari
  2. Solagh
  3. Sadrist
  4. Sadrist
  5. Sadrist
  6. Sadrist
  7. Sadrist
  8. Sadrist
  9. Chalabi
  10. Sadrist
  11. Sadrist
  12. Sadrist
  13. ISCI
  14. Badr
  15. Sadrist
  16. Sadrist

Posted in Iraq's 2010 parliamentary election | 9 Comments »