Iraq and Gulf Analysis

Baghdad Projections Based on a 60 Percent Count

Posted by Reidar Visser on Tuesday, 16 March 2010 14:35

The latest IHEC numbers are beginning to trickle in. Baghdad at 60% is significant enough to report separately, with the following rough projection for the 68 non-minority seats:

State of Law: 27 seats

Iraqiyya: 24 seats

Iraqi National Alliance: 16 seats

Tawafuq: 1 seat

It is noteworthy that Iraqiyya is doing particularly well compared with the previous figures, and now stands at 32% of the total vote, closing the gap to Maliki somewhat. The case of Baghdad also exemplifies how the particular proportional-representation system chosen by Iraq is not especially proportional and works to the disadvantage of smaller parties: Unity of Iraq, Ahrar, Ittihad al-Shaab and the Kurds should all have had one seat each if the system were perfectly proportional, but since they did not meet the threshold for the first allocation of seats in this example (around 35,000 votes), “their” seats are given to the “winning” lists instead.

At the individual level, the Sadrists continue to do particularly well, with the following approximate list for the top 16 INA candidates that are likely to win seats in parliament, adjusted for voter preferences:

  1. Jaafari
  2. Solagh
  3. Sadrist
  4. Sadrist
  5. Sadrist
  6. Sadrist
  7. Sadrist
  8. Sadrist
  9. Chalabi
  10. Sadrist
  11. Sadrist
  12. Sadrist
  13. ISCI
  14. Badr
  15. Sadrist
  16. Sadrist

9 Responses to “Baghdad Projections Based on a 60 Percent Count”

  1. Ali Wasati said

    It seems the INA has shot itself in the foot, I really hope that the Sadrists dont take too many ministries as it could hamper the ecenomic recovery for Iraq.

  2. amagi said

    I wonder on this point. What, exactly, is the outlook that the Sadrists have these days? What are their promises on entering parliament? Is there some sort of Western political corollary they could be likened to?

  3. bb said

    What is the threshold expressed in % terms?

  4. Reidar Visser said

    In some cases it works as a threshold as high as 10% – see today’s other post.

  5. Sina said

    Can anyone point to or at least enlighten me to what the various alliances and coalitions ran on for this election cycle?

    I take it domestic politics was more prominent on the docket than foreign policy. But one wonders with two major secular shia/nationalists parties displaying such a strong showing and the Sadrists potentially playing kingmaker…What will be Iraq’s outlook towards Iran? towards the United States? towards Syria?

    Interesting stuff. Thank you for the all good information, analysis, and posts.


  6. bb said

    The threshold, whatever it is, would be consistently applied surely? So we take it is 10%?

  7. Reidar Visser said

    Bb, there is no formal threshold. There is an effective threshold whose level varies from governorate to governorate and is caused by the part of the election law that says an entity that fails to reach the electoral divider (total votes divided by available seats) is an “excluded” entity, not eligible for any seats even if it got more votes than the remainders of the big parties’ share after the deduction of the votes they consume in the first allocation (the integer of total entity votes divided by the electoral divider).

  8. Zahra said

    “One detailed diagram, drawn up by the Sadrist strategists, broke down a vast slum by precinct. For one candidate, Hakim al-Zamili, a former deputy minister of health widely accused of running death squads during the civil war, voters were organized in 22 locales. So far, he is the sixth biggest vote-getter in Baghdad and seems sure to receive a seat.”

    I find the news of Sadrists doing so well rather worrying. Even though I do believe the movement itself to be authentic and nationalist, their leaders have been at best unpredictable and at worst, and outright nightmare. I agree with Ali, if they take many ministries, I can’t see how that would be a good thing for Iraq…

  9. Reidar Visser said

    Zahra, I’m just reporting the numbers as they emerge, and making the point that it would probably be unwise of Iraqi political elites to ignore this rather remarkable show of concerted action on the part of a large segment of the electorate. As you have probably heard, some of the “old elites” of INA have performed quite poorly, with for example Muwaffaq al-Rubayie having received no more than 222 votes so far even though he was candidate number 18. I agree that there are plenty of problems related to individual Sadrist candidates, not least the case of Hakim al-Zamili, although I think once he got on the ballot the damage was done. His case should have been handled by the court system, but, alas, it was busy doing other things in February – de-Baathification!

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