Iraq and Gulf Analysis

IHEC Publishes Partial Results of the Iraqi Provincial Elections

Posted by Reidar Visser on Friday, 26 April 2013 2:02

At the end of a long and dramatic week in Iraq, the Iraqi elections commission (IHEC) has released partial results of the local elections based on a count of 87-90% of the vote. At this point there is neither a formal seat distribution nor information relating to the electoral fortunes of individual candidates in accordance with the personal vote option. Also, it should be stressed that as of midnight 25 April, no official IHEC statistics had been published online. Accordingly, the source base for what follows are Iraqi journalistic accounts of the numbers as read out by IHEC at their press conference. The most comprehensive one appears to be from the AIN news agency, but it does include some very obvious errors and numbers that don’t add up, so the following approximate calculations of percentages of votes to the major parties must be taken as nothing more than rough indications:


Among the trends that stand out in this material are the following:

-The relative success of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in defending his strong electoral result from the previous local elections in 2009. Whereas his State of Law coalition has lost some seats in many governorates, it is still the biggest seat-getter almost everywhere in Baghdad and the south. Apart from the capital, Maliki has particularly impressive results in Basra and the far south. Still, the fact that some seats have been lost despite a broader coalition of Shiite parties (Fadila, Badr and the Jaafari wing of the Daawa all ran with Maliki this time) indicates that there has been a certain disadvantage of incumbency at work.

-ISCI, as represented in the Muwatin coalition, has made something of a comeback compared with its dismal performance in 2009. This is most pronounced outside the shrine cities, in provinces like Basra and Wasit. The comeback is all the more impressive given the relatively recent split with Badr, and could perhaps testify to a relatively successful process of reorganisation on the part of ISCI in the wake of the break-up.

-The Sadrists appear to be at a standstill, not making significant progress apart from winning back Maysan and gaining some new seats in Wasit.

-The Mid-Euphrates generally sees higher political fragmentation than the far south of the Shiite-majority areas, with much more room for local lists – including most spectacularly in Najaf where a local list came first.

-The strong performance of the all-Shiite list in Diyala is quite remarkable and possibly a testament to increased sectarian friction in the area. The figures for the Kurdish list in Diyala seem too low in this source and are contradicted by other sources based on earlier counts.

-With respect to the secular and Sunni camp, the single biggest difference with 2009 is the disappearance of the Sunni Islamist Tawafuq coalition, whose members are this time enrolled in various factions of the Iraqiyya movement, including most prominently Mutahhidun headed by Usama al-Nujayfi.

-In Baghdad, Nujayfi’s Mutahhidun has emerged as the second biggest list, thus inheriting the role of Tawafuq and to some extent marginalising the mainline Iraqiyya faction on its own home turf.

-In the other Sunni-majority governorates where elections are held – Diyala and Salahhadin – it is noteworthy that there is also considerable fragmentation and local lists have greater success than Allawi. In Salahaddin, Jamahir al-Iraqiyya was the biggest winner, whereas in Diyala, Iraqiyyat Diyala came first. The latter reportedly includes people closer to the Mutlak and Nujayfi camps.

It is now expected that final results will be published in two weeks, when the complete seat configuration as well as the identity of each new councillor will be known. At that point, the process of forming new local governments across Iraq can also begin.

11 Responses to “IHEC Publishes Partial Results of the Iraqi Provincial Elections”

  1. bb said

    I put my money on the horse breeding family to replace Iraqiyya. What say you, Reidar?

  2. Nujayfi is certainly the only component of the Iraqiyya camp that shows any sort of consistency across governorates at above the 10% level in these results.

  3. bb said

    You probably don’t remember but I became a fan of Nujayfi during the last lot of troubles, and then you revealed his family were horse breeders. Too good. We have a big thoroughbred racing industry here in Oz, and those racing types are great operators and wheeler dealers. They also call a spade a spade. Sadly however, corruption not unknown – but I suppose that’s a badge of honor in Iraq!.

    am also delighted to see Sadrists appear to have finally had their wings clipped. Reached the upper limit of their appeal. Goodness, they could barely get back in Maysan and yet when Rory Stewart was trying to run the place for the CPA they tore him to bits.

  4. Santana said

    The provincial elections are a joke this time around – the turnout is a fraction of the last elections and Iraq is on the verge of a major civil war….doesn’t matter what the results show….

  5. Salah said

    Excuse me may my question out of the matter.

    How long Talibani will be holding his position as he is sick and not able to perform his duties?
    Why Iraqi Parliament should wait more for an ill man he may not able to do his job due to his sickness?

  6. Salah, it seems Iraqi politicians currently deem the process of finding a new president more challenging than living with a dysfuntional one.

    Legally, Khuzaie acts until Talabani formally gives up his post. At that point, parliament would have to find a new one.

  7. Santana said

    Reidar- What “parliament” are you talkin about? it is completely dysfunctional- and EVEN if they got together to vote on anything of substance then Daawa goes into high gear as usual and starts calling members the night before ….here’s how the phone call goes- ” Hi Abu XXXX how are you? and he says “fine- who is this”? they say “moo shughlaq” meaning “none of your business”…then the Daawa guy says…listen here ” we need you tomorrow to vote “yes” on this or “no” on that ….(depending on what Maliki and his Iranian masters want)….then they continue by saying…”we know you can use 5 million in cash….and if you refuse and vote against ” abu Asra’s ” wishes (Abu Asra is Maliki)” we will nail your ass on article 4 of the constitution (terror charges) or another option we have is doing a choo-choo train (mass raping) on your 16 year old daughter while her sisters and mother are served popcorn and get to watch and wait their turn……so make up your mind…have a good night” ……….click……this is how things work in parliament my friend….laugh all you want but this is the new Iraq under Maliki and his 70 billion in sovereign wealth that he fully controls………………..Parliament…pfffft …..yeah-right !

  8. Salah said

    Khuzaie acts until Talabani formally gives up his post.

    Is that right Reidar?
    So Iraq should wait for Talabani to resign? What if he does not?

    Is this right process that a democratic system based on?

    Talking about ” a dysfunctional” government, Maliki last speech, he blame the parliament on going objections and disapproval of the government projects/bills for going forward with public service and other projects that serving Iraqis?

    What you think Reidar, what your take of Maliki speech?

  9. Salah, that’s roughly what the constitution says. If the president is “absent”, his deputy acts. Only if the position is “empty/devoid” (khalw) will parliament take action to replace the president.

    Re Maliki speech, I am not sure what specific legislative failures can directly be linked to Iraq’s security problems.

  10. Salah said

    can directly be linked to Iraq’s security problems

    First let read:

    James McCormick, a British businessman, made an estimated £50 million ($76 million/59 million euros) selling the “bomb detectors, ” based on a novelty golf ball finder, to Iraq and other countries. He was sentenced on Thursday to 10 years in jail for fraud.

    what specific legislative failures is:

    “The soldier holding the device is himself not confident in it, but it is imposed on him,” Mohammed said.
    “We already told the officials that the device is not working properly but they wanted to show the people that they did something,” he said.

    Mohammed also had sharp words for Britain for allowing the devices to be exported in the first place.“The British government must be held responsible for all the explosions that happened,” Mohammed said.

    So liglay Mohammed hold The British government responsible for all the explosions that happened, but what about inside the goveremnt who imposed on him? funny yah…

  11. Salah said

    While the president is “absent” , the master chefs preparing for special cooking in Tehran?

    وفد من الإتحاد الوطني يعقد عدة إجتماعات مع مسؤولين في طهران

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