The Baghdad Recount: No Change in Party Seat Allocation; Damluji and Jabir Habib Jabir Are Replaced by Others from Their Lists
Posted by Reidar Visser on Sunday, 16 May 2010 15:42
The Iraqi elections commission, IHEC, today announced the results of the Baghdad recount. The discrepancy between the original result and the manual recount was only around 3,000 of more than 2,000,000 votes and, in line with predictions, the seat allocation between parties remained unaffected.
A new Baghdad MP: Adnan Jabbar al-Mayahi of Daawa (Tanzim al-Iraq), who has a degree in “strategic planning in national security” (though he was an undergrad in the Arabic language), and work experience in combating terrorism!
The manual recount did lead to some minor changes in the list of Baghdad representatives, since this depends exclusively on the number of personal votes and as such is more susceptible to minor changes. Confirmed as casualties of this development is firstly Maysun al-Damluji of, of Wifaq, and the female spokesperson of Iraqiyya. She had just 650 personal votes and lost out to Fayza Kazim Muhammad al-Ubaydi (641 votes in the original count). The same fate applies to Jabir Habib Jabir, an independent with State of Law who was previously close to the Sadrists; he had 1,855 votes and is reportedly replaced by Adnan Jabbar al-Mayahi (originally at 1,822), of the Tanzim al-Iraq branch of the Daawa. A report on some Iraqi newswires to the effect that Ibrahim al-Mutlak, the replacement candidate for Salih al-Mutlak in Baghdad, had also lost his seat as a result of the recount (to Abd al-Karim Ali Abtan, at 2,807, of a nationalist group within Iraqiyya also represented in Kirkuk) is hard to believe given that he had 5,473 personal votes and would have had to lose more than 2,000 to fall below the lowest winning male Iraqiyya candidate, Ala al-Makki, at around 3,000 (unless, of course, he was in fact excluded as part of the de-Baathification process, where he was on the list of 52 and may have suffered personal exclusion even if Iraqiyya keeps his votes – this interpretation is confirmed in the official IHEC revised result for Baghdad released on 17 May).
IHEC has repeated its call for candidates for the 7 compensation seats to be forwarded within 3 days, at which point everything will hopefully be sent to the courts for certification.
19 Responses to “The Baghdad Recount: No Change in Party Seat Allocation; Damluji and Jabir Habib Jabir Are Replaced by Others from Their Lists”
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Iraq and Gulf Analysis 
Ali W said
Hi Reidar, how confirmed is this report …..
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100516/wl_mideast_afp/iraqpolitics_20100516144706
Could this possibly mean that the most popular politician will remain as PM? How likely could this help in speeding up the formation of government.
Reidar Visser said
Ali, that one resonates with what Ubaydi said yesterday. But it seems like a half full/half empty situation since today he emphasised the reservations to a second Maliki premiership.
Jason said
Reidar, can you tell me more about the Tanzim al Iraq? Who are they and what do they stand for?
Reidar Visser said
Traditionally more clearly pro-Iranian branch of Daawa. Created by Iran around 2002 in order to recoup influence in Daawa ahead of the war. I have written a little about them in these articles:
http://www.merip.org/mer/mer242/visser.html
Click to access Visser.pdf
JWing said
Even though Maliki didn’t get anymore seats from the recount it ultimately served its purpose. It dragged out the certification of the election results, giving State of Law more time to outmaneuver Allawi, and that’s exactly what they were able to accomplish with the merger with the National Alliance.
Reidar Visser said
Joel, I’d be interested to know whether there are any quotations by named Daawa leaders that back up your conclusions about Daawa intentions as far as the recount and the Shiite alliance is concerned. If we go back a month or so when Daawa pressed for a recount they had just learnt that the rising Sadrists had widely rejected Maliki in their PM “referendum” and there were talks about internal cracks in the Daawa and replacement candidates for Maliki. Back then you could get the impression that they were using the recount as an alternative to avoiding the Shiite alliance altogether, since it might put them in the lead over Allawi (or so they apparently thought, since at least some of them suggested that more than a couple of seats might change hands, and also talked about political majorities). Conversely, INA leaders pressed for alliance but strongly criticised the recount, apparently favouring instead the de-Baathification track.
As I see it it is really only for the past week or so that Maliki himself has begun talking in a more optimistic sense about the new Shiite alliance, reflecting perhaps a growing confidence that they may get more out of the internal PM process than they had expected only a month ago.
Salah said
Daawa. Created by Iran-Tanzim al Iraq
These are some not all there “crimes inside Iraq and out side:
1- failed attempted of shooting Vice chancellor of University of Technology in Baghdad in 1980 Ahmad Bashier Alnaib. resulted in there employee injured one shoot in stomach.
2- killing one Academic Staff member in University of technology/baghdad Dr. Mohammed Altikriti.
3- Put few time explosives in Rubbish bins (mounted on Lighting Poles) in Al-mansoor street caused and injured many innocent people passing at a time of the blasts.
4- High-jacked Kuwaiti plan landed which is the hijackers killed and throw one man body from the plan, in response to Kuwaitis support Iraq with war with Iran.
5- in 1991 after US bombardment Iraq and the uprising in south these guys infiltrated to Iraq with trucks full of weaponry from south they start burning hospital, supermarkets, land authority registers and schools in most southern Iraq cities. which made US to give green light to tyrant regime to fights back using only chops and tanks.
So this candidate well involve in some if not all of above crimes
Reidar Visser said
Salah, Tanzim al-Iraq is not older than 2002 (or maybe 2001). And Mr. Mayahi was born in 1976! I suppose some of the above relate to accusations made against the original Daawa party. As you are no doubt aware, thousands of its supporters were imprisoned or killed by the regime in the 1970s and 1980s.
Salah said
Just adding to their war crimes
They fighting with Iranians military against their nation Iraqi military which was under the command of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim with other big names of Da’awa-Tanzim al Iraq.
Tortures and war crimes against Iraqi POW, my brother in law lost his life due to these crimes as reported by some who survived the Iran war and returned from Iran after 13 years from the ware ended.
Salah said
Reidar,
Apologies you are right, but as you know Da’awa was one party then splits due Iranians self-interests not party interest as I believe. Please correct me if I wrong.
Salah said
As you are no doubt aware, thousands of its supporters were imprisoned or killed by the regime in the 1970s and 1980s.
Reidar,
I have my own doubts the number “thousands”.
First iraq had two stages of the struggle of loyality with monor group who loyal to Iran more than thier nation iraq. started in earlly seventies when the tyrent was very low profiles I remebrs well the collecteing iranins who lived in iraq and send them to Iran include with that group some of commenct party memebrs also soem big names who oppose ba’ath party at that tiem soem killed on that ground.
Second wave started after 1979 when lunatic Khomine got the power and the therset of that unloyality group start supporting him from inside Iraq.
The regime move fast and collect as much they could some put on the border with Iran some kept in prison (one of my very best friend during secondary school he is engineer and our neighbour in Hilla city Raad Nia’ama)I saw him ones in Military during my service in Baghdad Air-defence system these were imprisoned because either they are high educated or holding military info so they keept for security reasons.
Ali W said
You see Reidar, shia domination of Iraq must continue until the likes of those facists are elimated or die out. The deny the atrocities against the true Iraqis, the best of the Iraqis.
The messages above has reaffirmed my beleif in a rightful and just shia hegomony of Iraq.
Sunnis will just have to accept that. With denyers of crimes, democracy will not emerge.
Reidar Visser said
Well, Ali and Salah, you have both experienced injustices against your families in Iraq, and you’re both in exile. For someone who is not Iraqi it looks as if you are both sticking to black-and-white narratives that are somewhat disconnected from historical reality, Salah claiming that almost all of the Shiite marjaiyya is controlled by Iran and Ali suggesting that there has been total exclusion of Shiites from government in Iraq for centuries. Feel free to slug it out between yourselves but please not in this thread, which is about the results of the Baghdad manual recount. Only on-subject follow-ups will be published.
Ali W said
I have not slugged it off with anyone, I have never mentioned him by name, nor have I ever been rude to anyone.
However I was just letting you know the reality of the situation in IRaq when a minority is bent on dominating a majority.
Salah said
Reidar,
Please you mistakenly corner me in one side which I am NOT. I am for Iraq and Iraqi all not for this or that ethnic or religous belive.
You are very mistaken if you call me like. I never been devise in my argument about Iraq, I am for Iraqi who loyal to Iraq as a land and Iraq as a nation
Faisal Kadri said
Guys,
Obviously there is a lot of motivation and little cognition in this thread.
Ali, the reality of the situation is that you are scared of the Sunnis. An attitude of fear is never a good one to lead a mixed nation. I can see you are outside Iraq and there are many who think like you in positions of power inside Iraq, how come neither you nor them feel safe inside Iraq? Don’t you think there is something wrong with the way you see Iraq, not with the “reality” of Iraq as the rest of the world sees it?
Salah, you have an irrational fear of Iran. Al Daawa party stood up against Saddam’s dictatorship, lost more martyrs than any other party and showed more independence from Iran than most other Shia blocks, you can’t deny this. There will always be Iraqis sympathetic with Iran, are you suggesting Saddam’s policies of expulsions were right?
Kermanshahi said
While in Iraq the Ba’athists and Sunni extremists accise Shi’a leaders are accused of being Iranian puppets, part of an Iranian conspiracy to control Iraq, accusing them of loyalty to Iran, in Iran their Iranian counterparts act the same. Persian nationalists and Shahi Iranians often claim the regime are Arabs or wannabe Arabs, which only serve Arab interests (at cost of Iranians) while being involved in a conspiracy for Arabization of Iran.
But where is this animosity good for? Both ISCI/Sadr (and to some extent Dawa) and the Islamic Regime in Iran are just trying to create a friendship and brotherhood between our two nations while the extremists (Ba’athists and Persian racists) want Iran and Iraq to be enemies, this is bad for both countries. For centuries, not only in Iraq, Shi’a have been opressed and Iran as Shi’a state sees it as responsibility to help oppressed Shi’a communities, like that in Iraq, cooperation from both sides is not a bad thing. In Sunni (and some Shi’a) Iraqi circiles Iran has really demonised to much and Iranian intensions are often portrayed as much worse than they are, people try to find hidden motives and objectives in all Iran does, which are always supposed to be bad.
And just one more thing, it wasn’t Iran which attacked Iraq in 1980…
JWing said
Reidar,
I don’t have any specific quotes from Dawa members on that point. I think the recount had two purposes. 1st they were hoping to get more seats and take the lead over Allawi. 2nd it was a delaying action. I think that’s why SOL started objecting to the recount as soon as it started. SOL wanted to get something together so that Allawi could not put a government together. There have been plenty of statements before and after the election about SOL and the National Alliance coming together, and they finally were able to do that. The Sadrist objection to Maliki was a hiccup in that process, but I think it was an inevitability as soon as it was announced that Allawi came in first in the election. The Shiite parties were just not going to let him be prime minister.
Salah said
Many times commenting here my comments been not published on the ground out of topics of the post. I did respect that and respect the right of the owner of this space. I commenting in response to the request from Jason to Reidar about Da’awa “Tanzim al Iraq”?
Sadly none of you did comment on the topic, all of you failed to responding positively to the point raised here neither any one of you did discussed the crimes that done by the party against Iraqis first obvious not against the regime. Shame on all of you taking this matter and elevated and staged a personal attack.
The witnesses for these crimes are still alive easily can be traced and confirmed. Let restate here gain Da’awa one party whoever did splits they still in same veins and this spited was a necessity to get US aids and money in 2002.
.
My was comment to give better history what’s this party originally and later few of them splits from the their mother due to State department asked Jalabi to creates and affront of Iraqi oppositions in exile in London. Here we go as usually these Turban Mullah guys they play their game Mohahhamed Baqer Alsadar refused to talk to US even thorough their mediator Ahmed Galabi (he might been genuine ) also initially Al-Hakem joined him not participated in like these matter publically.
So the need to get things sorted out Malaik, Ja’afary joined by selected group splits and made their new front “Tanzim al Iraq” which wildly said they rejected Khomeini’s theory of clerical rule of Wilayat-al-Faqih. What you reckon some who can’t lift their eyes in their master’s face with these sort of claims, we saw Maliki been PM of Iraq in 2009 went to see his master with striped his tie and shoes to see him, do we believes in 2002 they just turned around not obeying their creators?
HIZB AL-DA’WA (PARTY OF THE CALL)
MIDDLE EAST Briefing, International Crisis Group Baghdad/Brussels, 9 September 2003